AI investment and Middle East conflict shape outlook for global trade

The outlook for world trade in 2026 will be shaped by two powerful and opposite forces. On the one hand, the extraordinary momentum of investment in artificial intelligence (AI) continues to energize global demand for high-tech goods and digitally delivered services. On the other hand, the conflict in the Middle East – and the resulting spike in energy and transport costs – could weigh heavily on world trade and output.

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