Global Trade Outlook & Trends in 2026

Sluggish Growth, Rising Uncertainty

Global growth is slowing, and that has big implications for trade in 2026. UNCTAD projects that the world economy will grow just 2.6% 2026, despite potential boosts from technologies like artificial intelligence. Developing economies, excluding China, are expected to grow slightly slower at 4.2%, down from 4.3% in 2025. For businesses and policymakers, this means trade prospects, investment flows, and strategic decisions will need to navigate a volatile and uncertain environment.

Resilience and Digital Trade Take Center Stage

Geopolitical tensions, rising trade costs, and protectionist policies are reshaping the global trade landscape. Companies are responding by diversifying suppliers, nearshoring production, and prioritizing resilience over just cost savings. Services, particularly digitally deliverable services, are growing faster than goods, offering new opportunities for exporters — but gaps in digital infrastructure remain a barrier for many developing countries. Businesses that invest in innovation, digital capabilities, and regional partnerships will be best positioned to thrive.

Shifting Patterns Shape the Future

The report also highlights long-term shifts in trade patterns. South–South trade is rising, environmental and digital regulations are shaping competitiveness, and the global economy is becoming increasingly service-oriented. For exporters, closing digital and technological gaps and aligning with sustainable trade practices will be crucial. In short, 2026 is shaping up to be a year where resilience, innovation, and strategic foresight will define success in the global marketplace.

Download the UNCTAD Global Trade Update (2026) here.